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PoliticsLive

Next French Presidential Election

6 outcomes · $643,079 24h volume
Put in any amount · it splits across 6 outcomes · you win on whichever one hits
Included marketsLive odds
Jordan Bardella
25%
7d: +1.0%
Édouard Philippe
19%
1.0% today
Marine Le Pen
10%
7d: +1.0%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
10%
1.0% today
7d: -1.0%
Dominique de Villepin
6%
1.1% today
7d: -0.6%
Raphaël Glucksmann
5%
0.1% today
7d: -0.1%
Community317 total
N
Noted-Advent5h

DLNEWS: Violent attacks on French crypto holders are on the rise. We should have the right to shoot illegal intruders, Ledger co-founder says. Larchevêque has close ties with pro-Bitcoin, far-right politician Sarah Knafo. Crypto owners should be allowed to carry pistols and se...

T
Tart-Recommendation3d

woke up to +3% because my bot caught some random twitter rumor at 3am. god i love automation

E
Euphoric-Flan1d

SHUT UP GO AWAY

👍1
U
Ultimate-Anesthesiologist1d

P&L = $0

S
Spry-Lime9d

Philippe de Villiers

T
Tart-Recommendation3d

anyone else rotating out of this into the newer markets? the probability edge is dying here.

M
Mature-Understanding13d

Ajoutez Emmanuel Macron

👍2
S
Silent-License12d

Il ne peut pas se représenter pour un troisième mandat, en vertu de l'article 6 de la Constitution

👍1
E
Expert-Misplacement10d

Comme aux USA mais Trump est quand même proposé

S
Silent-License7d

Après aux USA y'a un contexte : Trump a essayé de prendre le pouvoir par la force, donc c'est pas dit qu'il réessaie pas. Pareil, Poutine a supprimé la règle des 2 mandats maximum, mais ces deux là sont des tyrans en puissance ; malgré tout le mal qu'on peut penser de Macron, je doute qu'il puisse tenter un coup pareil ...

D
Decisive-Tablecloth7d

Si ça n'a aucune chance d'arriver alors la cote ira à moins de 1% et puis c'est tout, laissons les gens perdre leur argent sur ce qu'ils veulent :D

👍1
U
Unfolded-Swamp15d

Why is Melenchon polling at 11%? He's miles behind in all the runoff polls, even against Bardella. 65-35 or so in this possible runoff.

E
Euphoric-Flan13d

because people are retarded

👍4
S
Silent-License12d

He's cooked for the election, but he has a very devoted fanbase

👍5
D
Dizzy-Recovery7d

Polls are retarded, a year before a presidential election they consistently give him half as many votes as he actually gets in the end

👍1
A
Amazing-Monitoring17d

Les US vont sponsoriser un candidat.

👍3
T
Tart-Recommendation3d

my sentiment pipeline just went absolutely crazy over this. are we missing a news drop?

D
Dark-Follower18d

Can someone explain why le pen is on 10%, is not bardella running for RN?

B
Bony-Creditor18d

Le Pen is currently on trial, it is still uncertain whether she will be eligible or not

B
Bony-Creditor18d

It will depend on a court decision that will happen in July, if she is found guilty then Bardella will run for RN, if she is found innocent (or sentenced with only 1 year of ineligibility), then she will run for RN

D
Dark-Follower18d

why would she run when bardela is more popular

B
Bony-Creditor17d

I don't think Bardella is more popular. Marine Le Pen is the daughter of Jean-Marie Le Pen, who was the historical leader of the party from 1972 to 2011. Basically, this party has been a family dynasty for more than 50 years. Most of its reputation comes from the Le Pen's family, not from Bardella, who is almost a baby at this point. Bardella was never meant to run for president until last year, it only became a serious option when Marine was sentenced with ineligibility in a court of law.

D
Dark-Follower17d

she's lost 3 elections? shes a loser, bardella is at least a young fresh face with more general appeal

👍1
B
Bony-Creditor16d

She lost with 17% in 2012, 21% in 2017, 23% in 2022. Her popularity has kept increasing over the last 15 years, and it will keep increasing for 2027. She's clearly one of the most popular politicians in France. Man I don't mean to be rude but you don't seem to know much about french politics so IDK why you would be so confident about it

S
Silent-License12d

In France, when a far-right candidate joins the second round of the elections, far-left to right parties forms the "Barrage Républicain" (Republican Front), made to avoid far-right politians from winning elections.

R
Ruddy-Cranberry19d

New polls from IFOP. They are still not testing Hollande or Vallaud. But Glucksmann seems to have a fair chance to go on the second round. https://x.com/i/status/2029270796149879092

How much do you want to put in?
$
You get back if each resolves Yes
Raphaël Glucksmann
5% chance · 20.2x
$83
+$78
Dominique de Villepin
6% chance · 16.9x
$69
+$65
Marine Le Pen
10% chance · 10.5x
$43
+$39
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
10% chance · 10.5x
$43
+$39
Édouard Philippe
19% chance · 5.4x
$22
+$18
Jordan Bardella
25% chance · 4.1x
$17
+$13
None win
$0
-$25

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$4.17 × 6 outcomes · prices live on Polymarket CLOB
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Why this pack

Covers the top 6 contenders — you profit whichever one takes it, without picking a single winner.